HomeMy WebLinkAboutV.A.1 - Housing Study
HEDRA Memorandum
To: HEDRA Board of Commissioners
From: Rusty Fifield, Economic Development Coordinator
Date: July 2, 2020
Subject: Maxfield Housing Study
The Dakota County CDA has finally released the “Updated Comprehensive Housing Needs
Analysis for Dakota County, Minnesota” prepared by Maxfield Research and Consulting. The
report can be found in the Business section of our website in Assistance/Library/Documents.
This memo summarizes my observations on Maxfield’s findings related to Hastings.
The report divides the County into three submarkets: Developed Communities, Suburban Edge
and Emerging Edge, and Rural Communities. Hastings is included in the “Edge” submarket with
Lakeville, Farmington and Rosemount. Given the differences between these communities and
Hastings, I am cautious about applying the submarket findings and recommendations to
Hastings.
The report does contain Hastings-specific data. This data is shown as components of the
submarket and not to make direct observations about Hastings. The tables below have been
extracted from the report. The projections made by Maxfield account for proposed, approved,
and under construction projects as of August, 2019.
Median Household Income
I found the table Median Household Income 2019 by Age Group (Table A-5 | Page 164) to be one
the most interesting in the report. The 2019 median household income for Hastings was 32nd out
of 34 cities and townships in Dakota County. Only West St. Paul and South St. Paul were lower.
Median household income in Hastings of $67,977 was well below the $82,356 county-wide
median.
Age of Householder
Under 25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75= Total
Hastings $45,522 $67,854 $91,974 $86,798 $75,937 $57,840 $35,601 $67,977
Farmington $54,997 $84,978 $110,133 $105,280 $83,918 $70,198 $38,238 $93,385
Rosemount $50,985 $84,221 $113,852 $119,898 $103,712 $73,221 $42,980 $99,129
Lakeville $56,812 $89,216 $126,702 $128,727 $107,367 $79,581 $50,358 $106,486
County
Total $46,683 $77,436 $97,744 $106,188 $93,347 $66,842 $37,661 $82,356
Maxfield Study
July 2, 2020
Page 2
It appears that this factor influenced the nature of projected future housing demand. If true,
then changes in growth and income trends would alter Maxfield’s projections.
Housing Demand/Projections
The impacts of lower household income can be seen in the projection of demand for housing
over the next 20 years. Demand in Hastings skews to affordable housing types.
Additional General Occupancy Rental Demand (Table DMD-1 | Page 17)
2020-2030 Market Rate Affordable Subsidized
Hastings 100 ‐140 120 ‐150 180 ‐ 210
Rosemount 45 ‐75 65 ‐95 110-140
Farmington 200 ‐220 125 ‐145 110 ‐ 130
Lakeville 145 ‐245 205 ‐225 155 ‐ 175
2020-2030 Market Rate Affordable Subsidized
Hastings 235 ‐255 160 ‐175 140 ‐ 160
Rosemount 295 ‐330 130 ‐145 120 ‐ 140
Farmington 210 ‐235 125 ‐140 105 ‐ 125
Lakeville 605 ‐670 195 ‐215 140 ‐ 160
Additional General Occupancy Ownership Demand (Table DMD-2 | Page 20)
2020-2030
Single-Family Multi-Family
Modest <
$400K
Move‐up
$400K-$700K
Executive
$700K+
Modest<
$300K
Move‐up
>$300K
Hastings 630 ‐ 670 330 ‐370 0 ‐0160 ‐180 5 ‐20
Rosemount 875 ‐ 915 720 ‐750 0 ‐0 255 ‐275 135 ‐155
Farmington 1,550 ‐ 1,580 165 ‐185 0 ‐0105 ‐125 65 ‐85
Lakeville 1,085 ‐ 1,125 2,340 ‐ 2,440 180 ‐ 190 130 ‐ 150 770 ‐ 790
2030-2040
Single-Family Multi-Family
Modest <
$400K
Move‐up
$400K-$700K
Executive
$700K+
Modest<
$300K
Move‐up
>$300K
Hastings 470 ‐ 510 245 ‐285 0 ‐0115 ‐135 5 ‐15
Rosemount 1,055 ‐ 1,095 2,185 ‐2,215 235 ‐245 625 ‐645 895 ‐915
Farmington 1,380 ‐ 1,410 145 ‐165 0 ‐095 ‐115 60 ‐80
Lakeville 985 ‐ 1,025 2,125 ‐ 2,225 160 ‐ 170 115 ‐ 135 700 ‐ 720
Senior Housing Excess Demand Summary (Table DMD-3 | Page 24)
Year
Active Adult Service-Enhanced
Affordable
Rental
Subsidized
Rental
MR
Owner
MR
Rental Total Congregate Assisted
Living
Memory
Care Total
2020 12 46 58 108 224 45 63 33 14
2030 6 81 71 133 279 64 100 44 208
2040 16 116 78 145 355 87 159 62 308
Maxfield Study
July 2, 2020
Page 3
Rents
Maxfield’s analysis of existing rents validates our assumptions. Rents are lower in Hastings than
in other area cities. While these rents are more affordable, they also produce less income. This
makes new market rate apartments less financially feasible.
Rent Summary-May 2019 (Table-1 | Page 94)
Market Rate Affordable
Average Rent Average Rent
Total
Units 0BR 1BR 2BR 3BR Total
Units 0BR 1BR 2BR 3BR
Hastings 531 $645 $796 $910 $1,428 147 $939 $1,063 $909 $928
Edge 1,761 $1,060 $1,036 $1,145 $1,649 653 $939 $832 $829 $942
Developed 20,733 $997 $1,090 $1,318 $1,625 942 $929 $871 $897 $887
Demographic Projections
The appendices contain demographic and housing data for each community. The table below
contains a portion of that data
Actual Projected 2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 2030-2040
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 # % # % # % # %
Population 18,201 22,172 23,125 25,000 27,000 3,971 22% 953 4% 1,875 8% 2,000 8%
Households 6,640 8,735 9,170 10,700 11,700 2,095 32% 435 5% 1,530 16% 1,000 9%
Employment 8,872 8,532 9,520 10,000 10,500 ‐340 ‐4%988 12% 480 5% 500 5%